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The Secret to Making it Look Easy

February 8, 2018 By Dennis and Scott Leave a Comment

“Should we use a realtor?”

I get asked this question occasionally, especially in a strong seller’s market like we have right now. The hard data out there is clear: when you try the ‘do-it-yourself’ approach, you put yourself at a clear statistical disadvantage and have a much higher chance of not selling. And, those that do sell often end up selling at a discount more costly than hiring a realtor. But that’s not what I want to focus on here.

Coming from someone who, many years ago, tried (and failed) to sell for sale by owner (FSBO) before ultimately hiring a realtor, then becoming one, I can now clearly see both sides of the issue. I ultimately misjudged my abilities in some arenas and had total blind spots in others. I was oh-so confident at first: It all seemed straightforward! But I made the vital mistake of assuming that 98% of selling your home is finding a buyer.

If successfully selling your home was just about finding a buyer then when Zillow stormed onto the scene years ago, FSBOs should have gone through the roof. But there are now fewer FSBO’s than before! As I write this in February of 2018, I’m looking at the data for the last 3 days in RVA, specifically ‘Sold’ vs ‘Sold Non-MLS’ (without realtor representation.) We can run this as 3 weeks, 3 months or 3 years, it always looks the same:

In a 3 day period, only 1 regional sale displayed as FSBO – that’s 0.65% of total sales.

My perspective changed drastically after I became a realtor, not because it was now my livelihood, but simply because of what I was witnessing day in and day out in the real estate world. Most of us know a police officer that is extra vigilant with the security of their own home, a doctor that is hyper vigilant when it comes to protecting themselves against germs and diseases, an EMT that would never< text and drive, or a firefighter that has coached their own children extensively on the dangers of fires. They have an inordinate amount of eyewitness experience in seeing how bad a situation can go when it does go wrong.

While I would not put us on the same level as these heroes in our community, the same goes for real estate. When I first started in the industry I was shocked to see how common it was for a transaction to turn into a costly and even deal-killing mess. Even when the buyer and seller both operate efficiently and on time, you can end up with major problems.

It can be something as simple as a foundation problem, or…

  • a broken septic tank that needs to be replaced,
  • an unknown underground oil tank,
  • a leaking underground oil tank (hello EPA!),
  • a substantial amount of moisture under the house,
  • toxic black mold in the air ducts,
  • zoning issues,
  • structural issues,
  • title issues,
  • HOA violations,
  • discovery of a previously undisclosed attic fire,
  • dangerously high levels of radon,
  • termite damage,
  • the buyer’s lender majorly dropping the ball,
  • pipes bursting days before closing,
  • an improperly repaired roof that begins collapsing,
  • appraised value coming in short,
  • a combination of a dozen relatively minor issues that appear as a giant issue,

…and the list goes on and on.

And if you think this is an extreme example of rarely occurring problems, think again: These are all real examples from my first six months as a realtor!

Now enter those especially difficult buyers: Buyers trying to get you to fix every little nick and scratch in your house on the repair request addendum, even things that aren’t broken! Non-responsive buyers that are throwing off your timeline to close. Buyers who try to wiggle out of a contract so they can buy another house they love more than yours.

Think the buyer’s agent will help you out along the way? They are contractually obligated to represent the best interest of their client. Just like a judge that strongly advises someone against representing themselves in a court case, they know if they see you making critical mistakes or not objecting to something you have the right to object to, they legally can’t advise you otherwise.

And all of this is after you find a buyer. To get a buyer in the first place you need to hire a photographer ($300-$500, normally paid for by the realtor, and no, you and your iphone do not make for good photography), create printed marketing material for your house, implement social media marketing (more $$), and advertise in every newspaper and website you can think of since you will not be in the MLS system that agents rely on to find homes for their buyers.

Then there is the value of your time. And the value of your sanity! Buying and putting up signs, advertising for and holding open houses, follow-ups on those that showed interest, answering calls at work inquiring about your house, answering 100 other calls that waste your time (no, it is not for rent!)<, updating pictures and info on a dozen different websites, setting up and managing showing requests, getting feedback from showings, evaluating if a potential buyer’s pre-qualification letter is worth the paper it is written on, writing up and and negotiating contracts, handling deposits and escrow, finding and scheduling termite inspector, finding contractors to fix issues you didn’t know you had until inspection, sending a bajillion pieces of paperwork and emails back and forth to the buyer’s agent and to the attorneys, ordering HOA documents, scheduling appraisals, the final walk-through, the closing disclosures, the bank payoffs, ordering home warranties, scheduling closing dates and times.

And then continually adjusting your schedule through every hiccup in the process. Are you exhausted yet??

Here is my take:

A relatively competent and conciliatory seller with a decent property who accurately prices his or her home and is able to find a relatively competent buyer with reasonable expectations should be able to successfully sell their own house in a good market without representation as long there are little-to-no issues with the condition of the house or any other outside forces that would derail the process.

But how many transactions actually happen that smoothly? Conservatively, I would say 20%.

Your home is probably the most valuable asset you own, and you will spend at least one to two months hammering out the details of the most complicated legal transaction you will likely ever undertake.

Feel like rolling the dice?

Filed Under: Blog

The Phases of Home Buying

January 11, 2018 By Dennis and Scott Leave a Comment

One of Webster’s definitions for evolution includes: “the process by which different kinds of living organisms are thought to have developed and diversified from earlier forms during the history of the earth.”

Everything evolves over time — from the finches in the Galapagos, to the technology we hold in our hands. And with evolution comes a change in behaviors to help us adapt to the ever changing environment that surrounds us.

Buyer Evolution

If you are considering buying (or selling) a home, and you have not been in the market in 3, 5, or even 10 years, the environment has evolved substantially from what you experienced the last time you were in it.

Phase One – 2009-10: The inexpensive listings sell out

When the economy began a full-fledged crash in 2008, around two million new homes were being built. Unfortunately, there weren’t two million buyers to buy them and as a result, the real estate market was left floating belly up in inventory.

In order to get this ‘overhang’ of inventory absorbed, builders (and their banks) had to cure prices by as much as 50%.

So if you are expecting to see these types of deals still available, they aren’t. By and large, the excess new home inventory was absorbed by 2011 or so.

Phase Two: Now you see it, now you don’t

Though it couldn’t come soon enough, I think every Realtor expected that when the market did return, it would about-face rapidly.

By about 2012, with much of the excess inventory absorbed, prices stabilized and even began to inch up slightly as buyers started to return to the market. And what began as a slow drip of buyers in 2012, became a full-blown gully washer by 2014 as the buyers returned in droves.

More buyers combined with a limited supply of new housing meant multiple offers, competitive bids, and accelerating pricing. Those who were quick to adapt were rewarded by some of the most aggressive price growth of any time in our nation’s history (excluding the housing bubble). Those who still expected the same deals as in 2011 were left to wonder what might have been.

Looking Backwards is Not Always the Best Strategy

Looking into the past provides good clues, but isn’t a great predictor of what is to come. The entire valuation model is based on past ‘comparable’ sales. But when pricing is going up, looking backwards is not a great strategy.

Appraisers, tax assessors, sites like Trulia and Zillow— they all rely on past sales in order to determine their estimates of value. Unless you’re in a market that’s on cruise control, this isn’t a good way to establish value. The best answer includes using not just past sales data, but also combining that information with the intuition of an experienced Realtor—one who knows their market in and out and has the ability to sense which way home prices are trending and at what rate.

Evolutionary end phases

Now here we are, in 2018. And while the market is always in flux, the best way to assess how you should act as a homebuyer in any real estate climate comes down to understanding not just where the market has been, but where it’s heading. You must evolve with the latest conditions, which includes looking forward, and it includes involving an expert (that’s us!) who has seen the twists and turns and can advise you based on data, community trends, experience, intuition, and all the other intangible inputs that determine what a home will sell for.

Filed Under: Blog

Back Off or Push Harder?

December 11, 2017 By Dennis and Scott Leave a Comment

Every real estate transaction is different, for obvious reasons. And yet, every real estate transaction is also kinda the same… There’s a lot of emotion involved. And there’s a lot of money involved.

So it’s not always easy to understand when it’s the right time to push hard or when it’s best to ease off the pedal.

When to Push Back

One thing that can help you get closer to an answer: information. That’s the only way to know how your situation stands relative to the local market, which is key to maximizing your economics.
The chart below is one of our favorites, because we think it really provides some great guidelines in analyzing your personal market. What you see below is the percentage of the asking price that sellers got in a variety of zip codes/markets over a period of time. You can see that these are not straight lines, reflecting the changes in real estate demand. The Days on Market numbers correlates to the movement on those graphs as well, which makes sense: Buyers are going to be more aggressive in their bids if homes are staying on the market for shorter periods of time.

You can toggle on or off the individual zip codes (click the dots below the chart) to see how one area is moving versus the other.

Numbers Never Lie, Right?

“So the above chart is all we need to navigate a market, right?” I’m afraid not.

Even the best statistics include what we call “noise,” which in simple terms is something that can skew results. Every MLS customizes their data packages, and that’s fine. But all MLS’s should offer agents, as well as buyers and sellers, some tools to help them sort through all the data.

A few things to think about when you’re considering the charts above:

You’re more likely to find statistical packages using zip codes, as opposed to MLS zones. And a zip code does not represent one consistent real estate market. There can be some serious changes in the quality of inventory within a zip code, especially in the city.

In a zip code where there’s a lot of building, you’re going to find higher percentages against the ask because new homes are usually entered into the MLS at 100% or more of the asking price. On the flip side, resale homes in new home neighborhoods are likely to be at lower percentages because they are a little less competitive against all the new stock.

23220/23221/23226 have a smaller data size so the percentages will bounce around more. And when you have a small data size, it’s much easier for the averages to be skewed by an aberration.

Dig in, Move On, or Accept?

So what do you do when push comes to shove? Do you dig your feet in and fight for those last few thousand bucks? There’s no easy answer. The biggest takeaway we can give you though, is to make sure you utilize data, and be smart in how you interpret it.

Filed Under: Blog

Zillow’s Coming Soon Section.. Good Idea or Bad?

October 13, 2017 By Dennis and Scott Leave a Comment

There are more than a few surveys that say 90 percent of all real estate transactions involve at least one agent. You can also find more figures suggesting that 90 percent of all real estate transactions involve at least two agents, one for the buyer and one for the seller.

Now I want to set this up by pointing out that Zillow carries just 10% of all of the real estate portal traffic (again, depending on which of the many statistics you choose to believe.) And keep in mind that there are a lot of people coming through that site that aren’t really looking to use it as a tool to buy a house, such as researchers, ‘looky-loos,’ serial shoppers, and renters. Zillow will keep touting its traffic, but it’s simply not quality traffic. But, we digress.

Zillow’s ‘Coming Soon’

It an attempt to drive traffic, Zillow created a place on their site where sellers can announce they intend to sell their home. In theory, buyers get to take a look at these homes and make an offer before they hit the market.

Wait, what? I mean, aren’t they putting their house on some sort of market when it’s on a website, advertised as for sale, in front of the entire nation? So it’s a nonmarket market. And sellers hope they can avoid a commission by carving out the agent.

But is this really a good idea? Or, are the real buyers seeing this property? Is the seller really getting the full attention of the entire market? And are they likely to get the market value of the property when few people know about it?

Soft opens may work for restaurants and bars, but a soft sell? You’re eliminating one of the best resources you have: competition. This is especially true in high demand areas. Competition helps maximize the number of potential buyers by ensuring the widest exposure. It is, without a doubt, the best way to get your strongest offer.

(“Coming soon” could be a better tool for Realtors, who can scout for underpriced properties and make their pitch. But again, another post for another day…)

Getting Your Best Offer

I once heard an auctioneer say that any time two people are in the same room at the same time trying to buy the same thing, the seller gets market value. Put a third into the mix, and the seller is likely to get above market.

If these things are true, why on earth would anyone willingly reduce competition when selling their home?

Here’s the problem: Most people think only in terms of price. But offers include both price and terms. You cannot forget terms. Price is absolutely crucial, but the terms play a lot into overall satisfaction for a transaction.

So when you have maximum competition, you’re going to get better price and you’ll also be able to choose better terms. The ‘Coming Soon’ section of Zillow truly undermines a seller’s leverage by absolutely ensuring that the seller won’t be talking with the total population for that property. What are the chances that everyone who is interested in your property will find it if it is listed on only one message board? We call those chances slim…

But What About the Commissions?

There are a ton of intangible benefits that come with the commission paid. People tend to view commissions as expenses, but when you hire a good Realtor, you’re investing in a good outcome from your sale. If you feel your agent is an expense rather than an investment, find a new one.

Good agents:

  • create competition and consequently drive prices up
  • know how to negotiate effectively and put more money in your pocket
  • evaluate the market and help your decision making
  • bring expertise to lending, title work, appraisals, inspections and closing issues
  • recommend other experts for the help you need to smooth the transaction

The most motivated buyers are riding around in a car with their skilled buyer’s agent, looking for their new home. Shouldn’t you want someone to represent you when they show up?

One other thing: the commission paid to an effective agent buys you time, and that always has value. The time required to successfully pull off a transaction is too often underestimated and, in many cases, the time savings alone can make the commission worth it.

Summary

Now, I’m not telling you you can’t sell your house without an agent. Nor am I saying that “Coming Soon” doesn’t have some intrinsic value. This article simply suggests that a good agent combined with the most powerful real estate network (MLS) will typically lead to more value from the transaction than the commission you pay. “Coming Soon” may carve out a commission, but I bet it’s going to cost you somewhere else.

There are exceptions, such as if you are selling to a friend (or friend of a friend) or are not necessarily worried about getting every penny out of your property. But if you want to sell and take home maximum value and with the most favorable terms, exposing it to the most qualified buyers in a finite time period with guidance from an experienced agent will always yield the best results.

Filed Under: Blog

It’s Not Easy Being Green

October 1, 2017 By Dennis and Scott Leave a Comment

Why being environmentally conscious is usually the “road less travelled”..

If we went to a cocktail party and asked everyone what it means to be green, we’d get so many different answers. Some would say it means reducing waste. Others would want to adopt conservation-minded technology, like solar panels. Some would say it means eating less meat.

In home construction, green can mean a bunch of different things: sustainable materials, the latest in energy efficient mechanicals, tighter envelopes, reduced consumption of precious resources. And no matter which tactic a builder takes, the effort to be responsible is important and noble.

So then what gives? There’s no doubt that being green, if we have the option, is the better choice to make. So why does it seem so hard to make substantial progress on this? Well, we can tell you why. Because way too often it’s easier, even more valuable, to be irresponsible than it is to be responsible.

Here’s what we mean…

Instant hot water heaters are more efficient and will lower utility bills, but they’re more expensive to install than the old tank-based hot water heaters.

Flooring a home with sustainable wood or using similar framing materials is going to drive up your costs. Same goes for low VOC paints. And you’re going to pay extra for extra insulation or HVAC units with higher SEER ratings.

Rooftop gardens and urban farming are among the “green” trends becoming popular in big cities across the U.S.

A builder might do all of this in service of earning green certification from one of the agencies that does that kind of thing (such as EarthCraft of VA). And it’s likely going to tack on an additional 3-5% more to the final construction tab. If you’re looking at a $400,000 home, that’s about $12,000-20,000. That is real money. Are people going to pay for that? Increasingly so, yes. But they’re not necessarily the ones getting in the way of progress.

What is then? It’s that little thing called the appraisal. When a home is purchased using borrowed money, banks are going to require an appraisal. And if the appraiser doesn’t give premium value for whatever green components are included in the construction, then the value is artificially depressed. It’s possible the deal gets more complicated. It’s possible the borrower has to pay a higher interest rate. It’s possible the borrower might need to bring more cash to the table. None of these scenarios is good. All could possibly stunt the expansion of green building.

And we need to do exactly the opposite. We need to encourage builders to build—and buyers to buy—new green homes. We can’t let mortgage lending be the tail that wags the dog, not on something this important. This is a time for policy makers and the markets to lead.

Filed Under: Blog

The Sounds of Silence

August 31, 2017 By Dennis and Scott Leave a Comment

What it means when the market just doesn’t bite on your home…

As salespeople, we are trained in (or at least in tune to) non-verbal communication like body language and tone. We sense it, interpret it, and try to communicate it to our clients each and every day.

But what about the communication you never get — how do you value that? In other words, how do you value silence?

Even tougher, how do you interpret a silent market?

When an agent has to convey the reasons for the lack of activity around a home or project, what are the lessons to be drawn? What do you do when silence is the only sound you hear?

Exposure

While sellers invariably equate silence with a lack of exposure, it is rarely the case.

Measuring a property’s (or project’s) exposure is far easier than it used to be. Most MLS databases can show the number of times a property appears in searches and how many times buyers have tagged it as a favorite or removed it from their searches. Trulia and Zillow also provide similar measurements and can show not only the number of times it has been viewed, but how many times it has been favorited and/or shared.

And when projects implement web and video promotion, it’s even easier to track engagement through page or video stats. When you have historical data on other projects, comparative analysis becomes far easier.

But regardless of any metric, in this day and age, exposure is rarely the issue. Between the community of agents, e-mail campaigns, MLS, syndication of MLS data to Zillow and Trulia, as well as the constant (ab)use of social platforms by Realtors, almost every property receives the necessary promotion to reach anyone who is even remotely considering a purchase.

No Market

Market caps are prices above which no one is willing to pay in a given area, regardless of the home size or features. (We’ve written about market caps here.)

You can spot market caps when you look at a specific area and see at what price point marketing times rise sharply, seller discounts increase, or the expired listing count spikes.

Sometimes, especially when the home’s price is above an area maximum or the price per foot is higher than average (or even worse, when both exceed market norms) the market simply refuses to engage the property.

This is especially common in urban redevelopment zones, properties that are overbuilt for an area, or properties that might have a great deal of unfinished square feet that artificially drive up the price per foot metric to an intolerable level.

So the easiest way to correct the marketing of the home is to look for market caps, in both aggregate price and price per foot, and see if your property is too far above the norm. If so, the only real solution is to adjust the price.

Seasonality (or other Temporal Factors)

I am always amazed by the predictability of the sales season. I am also always amazed by how little the market understands the power of seasonality.

Take a look at the following charts:

As you can see, several market inputs have not reset to pre-recession levels and are causing market conditions to become hyper-seasonal. Inventory is still less than half of what it was pre-2008 and seasonality has never been stronger.

So selling your home in October but using sales in March as your guide will not yield the result you are looking for. If the market is silent on your home, it could be that you used a pricing model that was based in a season that has no bearing on the one you are in currently.

In most cases, the only solution is to adjust the price to what the market will currently allow or to wait until the higher velocity market of spring. As the leaves change colors and the temperatures begin their decline, pricing does as well. Waiting and hoping is not the correct strategy.

Search Patterns

So the sign is in the front yard, you are professionally staged, your pictures are great, and you are priced off of the correct season’s most recent sales — and nothing happens. Zip. Zilch. Zero. Nada. Crickets.

Almost every local MLS has lines that break an entire market into smaller zones. A line in MLS is typically either a border (city to county or county to county,) a major road, or some other feature in the land (a body of water is the most common.) Most times, the lines that exist in MLS are based on a decades old interpretation of the market.

So when lines are old and search patterns established, a new or emerging redevelopment area may not be searched naturally. For Richmond, condominium projects that exist outside of the borders of Zone 10 receive stunningly few organic searches when compared to properties inside of Zone 10.

Marketing any property that is atypical for a zone is harder and requires a ton of work by the agents to raise awareness. Direct mail, a relentless e-mail campaign, and even direct calls to targeted agents is the best way to combat the issue of being in an atypical zone.

Summary

Don’t assume that the cure for a lack of activity is always more exposure. Expensive advertising, time consuming open houses, or other alternative but pricey forms of promotion may make a seller feel good but actually do little to move the needle and prevent the agent from far more productive activities.

Seek to understand the reasons for the silence and adjust the program accordingly.

Filed Under: Blog

Types of Home Valuations

July 31, 2017 By Dennis and Scott Leave a Comment

No two elements of real estate can cause quite so much anxiety or lead to so many questions as the appraisal and the assessment.

To say that they cause some confusion is a total understatement.

Buyers ask sellers all the time why the assessment is so high or why an appraisal didn’t come in as high as they wanted. Answers to these types of questions are countless. But to try and sum it up in one thought: each number is estimating a different value based on different data and the purpose of the valuation is different for each.

fair market valueMarket Value (or Fair Market Value)

If we’re going to talk about valuations, we should start by defining fair market value (FMV). FMV is the measurement that most closely reflects the value of the asset at any given point in time. Maybe the easiest way to state this is that it’s the price a buyer and seller would settle on if both were rational, had access to applicable information, and weren’t under any extreme pressure to execute the transaction.

Two key points to remember :

  1. FMV is established by the market.
  2. FMV measures a specific moment in time; it is not fixed and not necessarily predictable.

Put another way, no third party calculates FMV based on previous inputs. FMV is now. There are lots of parties interested in the FMV—lenders, title companies, assessors, and now real estate websites—but FMV is set by the market and all other valuations should be driven by this fact.

Unfortunately, this isn’t always the case. FMV is undermined by other parties in the transaction, each with its own intent. To make their best decision, buyers and sellers need to understand what’s in play for each party involved.

Below begins a discussion of the other common valuations and how they are established.

The Assessment (Tax Assessment)

Every year, property owners get a piece of mail from their local government. Very rarely is it good news. The tax bill asks for money, and that already lends it an air of gloominess. But included on that tax bill is the assessment, and it almost always triggers some kind of emotional reaction, ranging from a sigh to an angry growl. Sometimes, if it’s really bad, it will spur us to action: maybe a call to the assessor’s office, maybe a call to a lawyer.

But what I’m trying to drive home is that the assessment drives the tax bill.

tax revenue Now how do the assessors calculate that value? Well, they bring in a whole bunch of factors: size, age, beds, baths and location, as well as sales price of other ‘similar’ properties. They throw all of it into a calculator (okay, that’s not true) and an assessment value comes out. What’s interesting is that the town, city, or county doesn’t have to be perfect. They just have to be decently close. Because their ultimate objective is to generate enough revenue without disturbing the collective peace. And they have to fund the budget. So it’s natural for tax assessors to prefer that tax rates rise to raise revenue—that responsibility falls on lawmakers—instead of increasing assessed value, in which the assessor is the bad buy.

So how accurate are assessments?  The best way to describe it is “kind of.” Assessments tend to drag behind the current climate of real estate. A market might surge one year, and the assessments won’t catch up till the next—or even later. You see, assessors don’t see what’s in the MLS and they don’t go visit actual properties, so they don’t know about renovated kitchens or unfinished attics or all kinds of things. Likewise, they won’t know if a roof is shot or the mechanicals are vintage. All of these will play into the FMV but they very well may not affect the assessment.

Accuracy Level – 85% at best and generally below the FMV, unless the market is falling dramatically.

The Appraisal

If you’ve recently bought a piece of property and borrowed money to do so, you have been through an appraisal.

If not, you want to know what an appraisal is. Well, there’s a hint in the previous sentences. Lenders drive the need for appraisals. They want to understand the value of the thing that will soon be collateral on their loan.

How does it happen? There’s an army of professional appraisers out there. These people are licensed and required to stay educated about the discipline. Many of the better ones get even more education to earn additional designations. And there is a standardization to the process.

Anyway, a lender hires one to examine a property and render an evidence-based analysis on the value. That appraiser will have access to the most accurate information (otherwise known as MLS) and the most recent sales information. And appraisers will go and visit that property to confirm as many details as possible.

How do appraisers establish values?  While the appraisal process notes the three primary methods of valuation (comparable sales, income approach, and replacement cost) the comparable sales method is the most common when establishing value of single family homes.  The appraiser is responsible for identifying three of the most applicable recent sales that compare to the property being appraised. So an appraiser working on a four-bedroom home in the Fan is going to look for other four-beds as near to that property as possible. And they’re going to have a lot of other things in common as well. They are comparable, hence the term “comparable sales” or comps.

appraisal and lendersWhat do lenders do with the appraisal? They use that value to figure out the maximum amount of money they will lend against the property. The less debt there is against the value of the home, the more secure the bank will feel, and they tend to lower the interest rate. As an example, a bank might want 5 percent on a loan that is 90% of the value of the property. That rate might sink to 4% if the loan is only 80% of the value. An important thing to know: the bank uses the appraisal value and technically doesn’t care what the agreed-upon sales price is.

If the appraisal falls below the purchase price, the buyer will either have to make a bigger down payment or accept a higher interest rate. Bottom line: the appraisal is pretty darn important, especially if buyers are seeking to borrow the maximum loan amount. Some deals can fail when an appraisal comes in too low.

Then how do appraisals differ from FMV?  In many minds (including appraisers, underwriters, AND many Realtors) an appraisal and FMV are one and the same. This is not true. An appraisal is measuring value at a past point of time to establish a value in the present under the assumption past and present market conditions are effectively constant.  In many cases, especially in an active market, the appraisal should be pretty close to FMV. But if you’re in a market that is experiencing relatively precipitous changes in value, there could be a gap between the appraisal and the FMV.

And remember, the appraiser is technically unbiased. He/she did not see what might have really struck the buyer during the ‘for sale’ period. The appraiser doesn’t bring emotion to the process. The appraisal seeks to compare the subject decision to one made during a different time period and by different people who saw an entirely different set of homes. Far too little attention is paid to this hugely important fact.

Regardless of the arguments presented above, the appraisal is USUALLY accurate enough and while not perfect, is probably the most accurate of the measurements of Fair Market Value.

Accuracy Level – 95-98%

The Zestimate (or other Automated Valuation Models…sometimes called AVM’s)

Zillow has certainly become a force within the real estate world in a relatively short period of time. Some people go to their site, see a figure that looks precise and assume it must be accurate. This is absolutely not true. 

In Hanover County, for example, Zillow offers the following disclaimer – a Zestimate of $400,000 means a computer in Palo Alto has estimated that the ultimate sales price be plus or minus 10% in 64% of the cases.  The other 36% of the time, the value is less accurate than that.

Use the Zestimate at your own risk.

Summary

If I wanted you to take anything from this piece, it’s that each of these measurements are done differently, using different sources of information, and they are performed for very different purposes.

Neither the assessment nor the appraisal and of course the Zestimate can be taken to represent the FMV. You get there by working with your agent, doing your homework, and performing a good, structured search. Be really careful before you let a Zestimate or an assessment color your judgment when making a real estate decision. Rely on the most current info—that is dependable—and you will come up with a good estimate that will lead to the true FMV.

Filed Under: Blog, Buyers, Front Page, Sellers

The White Elephant

June 30, 2017 By Dennis and Scott Leave a Comment


‘Too big for the street.’

‘Overbuilding.’

‘The white elephant.’

When a particular situation has a number of descriptions that all mean about the same thing, you know that it’s probably a common situation. That is what we’re talking about with the above terms, all used to describe a less than ideal condition. It’s a home that doesn’t fit in to the local value perspective, whether it’s too nice, too big, or both. Put another way, the home’s value is beyond what a buyer would be willing to pay for it.

What is a Market Cap?

Here’s an example. You have a subdivision filled with mostly colonials, all with decent yards, all running about 3,000 square feet. On average, buyers paid between $250,000-300,000.

But one person bought two lots in that subdivision and planted a 6,000 square foot home with an in-ground pool, the finest details throughout, a three-car garage. They spent $700,000 to build it. Could they sell it for that much? What do you think?

The market cap is more or less the organic ceiling on home value. People aren’t likely to pay more than that for a house in that neighborhood, no matter how cheap it might be compared to the same house in another community. Some market cap violations are minor and perhaps easier to digest. Other violations are insanely problematic, like the one I just cited.

But the question is: how do you find a market cap when you’re considering an infill opportunity or a major renovation?

How Do You Find a Cap?

There is no easy answer to this question. There is a little bit of science to it, but probably just as much art. Agents, though, with strong experience and a thorough knowledge of the markets in which they work can become quite adept at defining the market cap.

As I’ve said many times before, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) is the most valuable resource in terms of data. It’s got it all: age of the home, square footage, features, construction information, and then information about geography, price history, and much more. This is the best place to look for outliers in the market.

Take a look at the chart below about the Lee Davis High School District. It shows how long a property is on the market and what the seller got versus what she asked for.  When the asking price breaks through the $500K mark, the time spent marketing soars AND the percentage of the asking price that the buyer receives goes way down. This radical change suggests some information about a market cap. And the news gets worse the higher the original ask goes.

Let’s compare Lee Davis to Midlothian High School — you see a gradual softening in demand become far more pronounced in the middle $500’s.

And finally, to Deep Run High School. The market holds pretty firm until you reach $700,000 and then it starts going soft.

I hope this makes it clear that geography plays a huge role in the market cap. Each of the markets described has this organic roof beyond which buyers show a lot more hesitation.

Why Do Caps Matter?

Well, let’s look at the examples we already laid out.

Would I buy a home for $800k in the Lee Davis HS District? Not unless I felt pretty sure it was going to be the last house I ever bought.

How about the prospect of investing $200,000 into a Salisbury home that cost me $400,000? That I think I would do.

If I’m going to develop some land in Deep Run HS District, would it be smart to build brand-new million dollar spec homes? No, that would not be smart.

The market cap is an important number, one we should all try to suss out. It will help us make smart investment decisions that don’t have anything to do with appraisals or the price per foot. Because when you’re buying or building something, you have to keep your eye on the day you’re going to put the For Sale sign up.

Be aware.

Filed Under: Blog, Buyers, Uncategorized

What You Need to Know About AVMs

June 6, 2017 By Dennis and Scott Leave a Comment

“You’re home is worth…[click here]”

“Do you want to know what your home is worth?”

“Your neighbors sold their home—guess how much!”

We all see these solicitations all the time—via email, in our mailbox, on billboards. You’re surrounded by companies and services who can give your home its value to the penny. But how valuable are their estimates?

The Rise of the AVM

There’s no doubt that the proliferation of real estate information and, with it, the rise of the Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) have been transformative for everyone involved in real estate. Values are no longer safeguarded by agents or appraisers. Anyone who can navigate the internet can find free valuations as long as they have an accurate address. But there are some big questions you need to ask.

Are they accurate? They can be.. 

Are they easy to use? Most are.

Are they valuable? Well, to use an old adage, you get what you pay for…

The Technological Achievement

There’s no question that these services’ capacity to aggregate real estate information and give you anything close to a real value without even seeing the property is kind of amazing.

But Zillow has created a myth that its valuations are absolutely correct, regardless of what you might know (especially if you’re a Realtor). It’s too bad because Zillow is a pretty darn good tool if you know how to use it properly.

Where Zillow Missed

For a while, Zillow was it. It was the first big name in the game. It even branded its valuations – Zestimates.

They operated in a vacuum for nearly a decade, with no competition. And for a while, no other service could match their accuracy.

As more people learned about Zillow, we Realtors had to deal with it becoming more of a factor in our client services. More specifically, we heard a lot of clients telling us that “Zillow says the house is worth…” Or they just come to you with a number, which happens to match to the dollar the number you find when you go for a Zestimate. I have seen buyers and sellers rely on the Zillow valuation without questioning how Zillow arrived at the number. As if the only thing needed to validate a number is for it to appear on a nicely designed web page.

This can be pretty frustrating. The public doesn’t necessarily understand all of Zillow’s ingredients. And Zillow, while certainly possessing some amazing information, is pretty rigid in its valuation — especially in light of the unknowns. And of course they don’t want anyone to doubt the value of the their valuations. But this is ultimately a weakness that harms the site’s users.

Instead of saying ‘Our Zestimate = $276,400,” Zillow could use something like ‘Our Zestimate is between $271,000 and $278,000 and our data indicates we are 80% sure of our estimate.’

What this does is rightly recognize that there are a lot of factors in a real estate valuation that can push it up or down.

Zillow’s Competition is Better

Well, things have changed. There’s more competition in the market. And some of those new services are doing exactly as they should: creating ranges and encouraging users to think in slightly more elastic terms. And the result is that the valuations we’re seeing have quite a bit of variability.

See below:

Here is a sample of AVM’s for the following home – 157 S Colonial Avenue, Richmond, VA 23221 :

  • HomeFacts – $395,000
  • Zillow – $532,790
  • EApprasial – $422,292
  • HomeSnap – $377,100

Those values represent a roughly 30% range. So which one is correct? Well, there’s not a simple answer to that.

How it Should Be Done

The CoreLogic platform that we subscribe to as a part of our MLS states values differently.

We really like that they offer more than just a suggested value. You get an entire range of values along with a confidence interval that gives you a sense of how close you might actually be. It just feels like a smarter way to offer valuations to the public. It’s good to know that someone put some thought into this.

The Market Reacts

The availability of this more sensible valuation information is already having an impact.

We’re seeing more people ask smart questions, such as why Zillow’s valuation might different from Realtor.com’s, which is also different from Movoto. Skepticism is a good thing, especially when someone is telling you that your most valuable asset is absolutely worth $x.

People are recognizing that no estimate, no algorithm is perfect or magical. They’re understanding that the data and the factors underlying that valuation don’t tell a black and white story. There is variability and different ways to interpret the data.

Another good thing…clients are recognizing that there’s really too much information out there, and they’re asking for help in trying to sort through all the digital noise. This is good because agents—good agents—really do offer a set of tools and skills that help their clients understand the market and make sound decisions. That’s a good thing for everyone.

So definitely use AVMs, but don’t use them blindly. Ask lots and lots of questions, and don’t be afraid to ask for help.

(To read about the heat Zillow has faced recently for this exact issue, click here.)

Filed Under: Blog

The Tortoise and the Hare

April 10, 2017 By Dennis and Scott Leave a Comment

You see it all the time:

‘We will sell your house fast!’

‘Sold in one day!’

‘Call us and start packing!’

Somewhere we have convinced ourselves that selling a home quickly is the only way to go. And the selling public has bought into the same myth. The only type of sale is the fast sale and anything else represents failure.

So what do Realtors do? They tend to focus on speed, pushing a marketing message that promises a speedy sale to please clients who feel that a home sold quickly means a job well done.

And it can. Sometimes speed can be the best strategy, particularly in cases where a bidding war can be created, if the market is falling quickly, or if a particularly great opportunity presents itself on the buy side.

But a quick sale shouldn’t be the goal as a client — the best price and the best terms should be the goal and if it takes a little time to achieve those goals, so be it. Focusing solely on speed can mean losing some value in the long run.

The value of your home isn’t as stable as you might think.

Sure, there are some homes that may never (in their current physical state) be less than a certain value or more than a certain value (these are called market caps), but there’s a large gray area in which a home could realistically be valued anywhere within. Aside from the material value of the brick and mortar building itself, people often think of factors like proximity to retail, what school district the home falls in, or easy access to major highway systems as factors that additionally determine a home’s value (location, location, location, right?). But what about other factors – factors that change temporally and thus draw the connection between a home’s value and timing rather than just surroundings.

Think about comparable sales (comps) for example. It’s the classic supply and demand equation from our freshman year econ class that clients so often forget. Higher supply of goods means prices are driven down, right? If you try to sell your home while 10 other similar homes in your neighborhood are up for sale, it might not only be harder to find a buyer, but the value of your home automatically both impacts and is impacted by the value of those other homes. Wait until there’s only a few up for sale nearby and you might be able to increase that value – people have less to choose from. But, there might be fewer buyers during that time.

Other reasons that waiting might make more sense include:

  • allowing time for an up and coming market to blossom further
  • a home undergoing a significant upgrade
  • in the case of a particularly interesting or unique home, to allow the time for a buyer with that specific need to find you

It’s complicated. We know. It takes experience and a large amount of market knowledge to be able to understand and interpret these factors appropriately, which is why not anyone can just jump into the real estate market on a dime and expect to be a successful Realtor, but that’s another argument for another time.

Ultimately, timing (or seasonality) is something to be taken seriously. Very seriously. And ignoring the timing of a sale is one of the biggest mistakes we see people in this industry make. But that’s the thing – it’s about timing not speed. Speed implies that quickness is the only focus, while timing implies an element of strategy. For most of our clients, value is the goal, and speed is just an added plus, if the transaction happens to work out that way.

Learning the nuances of this sort of timing can be tricky, but the savviest and most experienced Realtors tend to have it down. Those are the ones who aren’t afraid to let you know when waiting the market out is the best plan in the long run (even if they still brag about speedy sales because, let’s face it, it’s what people want to hear). A Realtor who promises speed regardless of market factors that may dictate a more slow or cautious approach is likely more concerned about his or her own personal gain, rather than the client’s.

Filed Under: Blog

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Richmond, VA 23220
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Dennis Norwood and Scott Salvant are licensed in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

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